Showing 1 - 10 of 12,484
forecasting risky 50/50 gambling decisions using different types of machine learning algorithms as well as traditional choice … relevant information for predicting gambling decisions, but we do not find forecasting accuracy to be substantially affected by … adding SCPMs to standard choice data. Instead, our results show that forecasting accuracy highly depends on differences in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012427354
Using a laboratory experiment, we investigate whether comovement can emerge between two risky assets, despite their fundamentals not being correlated. The ‘Two trees' asset pricing model developed by Cochrane et al. (2007) guides our experimental design and its predictions serve as our source...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847964
In this paper, I discuss the difference between accommodated evidence (i.e. when evidence is known first and a hypothesis is the proposed to explain and fit the observations) and predicted evidence (i.e., when evidence verifies the prediction of a hypothesis formulated before observing the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009784054
We investigate various statistical methods for forecasting risky choices and identify important decision predictors … three seconds of lottery-information processing. The results of our forecasting experiment show that choice-process data can … effectively be used to forecast risky gambling decisions; however, we find large differences among models’ forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011964372
Bayes' statistical rule remains the status quo formodeling belief updating in both normative and descriptive models of behavior under uncertainty. Some recent research has questioned the use of Bayes' rule in descriptive models of behavior, presenting evidence that people overweight 'good news'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012064638
Bayes' statistical rule remains the status quo for modeling belief updating in both normative and descriptive models of behavior under uncertainty. Some recent research has questioned the use of Bayes' rule in descriptive models of behavior, presenting evidence that people overweight 'good news'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178991
Bayes' statistical rule remains the status quo for modeling belief updating in both normative and descriptive models of behavior under uncertainty. Some recent research has questioned the use of Bayes' rule in descriptive models of behavior, presenting evidence that people overweight 'good news'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012029067
Using a laboratory experiment, we investigate whether contagion can emerge between two risky assets, even when their fundamentals are not correlated. To guide our experimental design, we use the ‘Two trees' asset pricing model developed by Cochrane et al. (2007). The model makes time-series...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836283
Bayesian hierarchical models serve as a standard methodology for aggregation and synthesis, used widely in statistics and other disciplines. I use this framework to aggregate the data from seven randomised experiments of expanding access to microcredit, assessing both the general impact of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020777
The investigation of response time and behavior has a long tradition in cognitive psychology, particularly for non-strategic decision-making. Recently, experimental economists have also studied response time in strategic interactions, but within an emphasis on either one-shot games or repeated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014128971