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We investigate expectation formation in a controlled experimental en-vironment. Subjects are asked to predict the price in a standard asset pricingmodel. They do not have knowledge of the underlying market equilibrium equa-tions, but they know all past realized prices and their own predictions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333274
The Lucas (1978) Tree Model lies at the heart of modern macro-finance. At its core, it provides an analysis of the equilibrium price of a long-lived asset in an exchange economy where consumption is the objective, and the sole purpose of the asset is to smooth consumption through time....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012322400
Notwithstanding the recognized importance of traders' expectations in characterizing the observed market dynamics, for instance the formation of speculative bubbles and crashes on financial markets, little attention has been devoted so far by economists to a rigorous study of expectation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002133504
utility of terminal wealth, we prove the existence of an information premium between what is required by the theory, a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506342
We present a new theory of asset pricing and portfolio choices under asymmetric reasoning, contrast the predictions … with those under asymmetric information, and present experimental evidence in favor of our theory. The Efficient Markets … manipulation of aggregate risk, we separately test the price and choice implications of our theory. Consistent with our theory, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003970453
We design an experiment to test the hypothesis that, in violation of Bayes Rule, some people respond more forcefully to the strength of information than to its weight. We provide incentives to motivate effort, use naturally occurring information, and control for risk attitude. We find that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014015
Behavioural finance theories draw on evidence from psychology that suggest that some people respond to information in a biased manner, and construct theories of inefficient markets. However, these biases are not always robust when tested in economic conditions, which casts doubt on their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013048774
formation in economic and perceptual decisions. An alternative theory is that there exists a common mechanism that governs … belief formation in both domains. Here, we test this alternative theory by combining a novel computational modeling technique …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013001419
Inflation expectations are central to economics because they affect the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy as well as realized inflation. We survey the recent literature with a focus on the inflation expectations of households. We first review standard data sources and discuss their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012886870
We design an experiment to test the hypothesis that, in violation of Bayes Rule, some people respond more forcefully to the strength of information than to its weight. We provide incentives to motivate effort, use naturally occurring information, and control for risk attitude. We find that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011347344