Showing 1 - 10 of 13,431
This paper presents a problem structuring methodology to assess real option decisions in the face of unpredictability. Based on principles of robustness analysis and scenario planning, we demonstrate how decision-aiding can facilitate participation in projects setting and achieve effective...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014157249
R&D is often a highly uncertain venture where experiments achieve successful outcomes on an extraordinarily rare basis. Just one successful product could change the future of a company; the discovery stage can often be an invaluable or disastrous experience. We develop a real R&D option model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013160214
Governments and corporations frequently auction assets with embedded real options using both cash and contingent bids. I characterize equilibrium bidding and option exercise strategies, and find that the moral hazard associated with uncontractible investment timing inefficiently and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905552
based on introducing stochastic idiosyncratic cash flow risk into an equity valuation model of firms with growth options …. Within our model, a firm's systematic risk depends on the delta of its growth option. The growth option's delta is lower when … idiosyncratic volatility rises, driving down the firm's systematic risk and hence its expected return - firms with higher …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007739
We propose the Virtual Bingo Blower (VBB) as a way to generate credible risk and ambiguity in computerized experiments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015075038
We develop a behavioral theory of real options that relaxes the informational and behavioral assumptions underlying … applications of financial options theory to real assets. To do so, we augment real option theory's focus on uncertain future asset … values (prospective uncertainty) with feedback learning theory that considers uncertain current asset values (contemporaneous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012856401
We propose a new paradigm to study coordination in complex social systems, such as financial markets, that accounts for fundamental uncertainty. This new context has features from prediction markets that have been shown previously to mitigate price bubbles in classical asset market experiments....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011514493
long horizons. We present an experiment comparing decision making under certainty, risk, and ambiguity, over a shorter … lifecycle. Results show that behavior in the ambiguity treatment is markedly different than in the risk condition and it is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013033292
We review some of the (theoretical) economic implications of David Schmeidler's models of decision under uncertainty (Choquet expected utility and maxmin expected utility) in competitive market settings. We start with the portfolio inertia result of Dow and Werlang (1992), show how it does or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012121980
Purpose The relevance of present consumption bias on personal finance has been confirmed in several studies and has important theoretical and practical implications. It has important, measurable implications when analyzing commitment or self-control, adherence to healthy habits (e.g. exercising...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012128806