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The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat native random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498976
The study at hand deals with the expectations of professional analysts and novices in the context of foreign exchange markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences between professional forecasts and judgmental forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296526
laboratory. Third, nominalist heuristics are incompatible with expected utility theory which excludes the evaluation stage, and … are also incompatible with prospect theory which assumes that, while the evaluation stage can involve systematic mistakes … model and identify what is a mistake, and b) decision makers can maximise. However, contrary to prospect theory, in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003867227
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009526292
theory. The theory predicts that forward premia in electricity markets are determined by the statistical properties of demand …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832110
cooperation-conflict model of exchange rate determination. The experiment allows an interpretation within an umbrella theory of … Pope, namely SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory. Our joint field plus laboratory evidence indicates that official … expected utility and game theory that lacks a), b) and c) and hence lacks a means for economists to understand that exchange …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009541016
We develop a classroom experiment on exchange rate determination appropriate for undergraduate courses in macroeconomics and international economics. Students represent citizens from different countries and need to obtain currency to purchase goods. By participating in a sealed bid auction to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014054714
This paper studies the behavior of the exchange rate in the Kareken-Wallace overlapping generations economy with two currencies in which decision rules are updated using the genetic algorithm. The analysis shows that a stationary monetary equilibrium of the Kareken-Wallace model is not stable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014085392
In this paper we test empirically with the Nordhaus and Yang (1996) RICE model the core property of the transfer scheme advocated by Germain, Toint and Tulkens (1997). This scheme is designed to sustain full cooperation in a voluntary international environmental agreement by making all countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321371
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