We provide empirical evidence that the optimism bias increases with the forecasting horizon. We label this empirical regularity the horizon bias. In the US and abroad, professional forecasters demonstrate significant horizon bias in their macroeconomic expectations. Our results show a horizon...

This paper analyzes fairness and bargaining in a dynamic bilateral matching market. Traders from both sides of the market are pairwise matched to share the gains from trade. The bargaining outcome depends on the traders’ fairness attitudes. In equilibrium fairness matters because of market...

Under-reaction is a robust response to model misspecification rewarded by financial markets, rather than an “irrational” attitude that leads to extinction. I show that under-reacting rules guarantee predictions as accurate as Bayes' in well-specified learning problems and beat Bayes' in many...

We provide evidence of a powerful barrier to social learning: people are much less sensitive to information others discover compared to equally-relevant information they discover themselves. In a series of incentivized lab experiments, we ask participants to guess the color composition of balls...

This paper analyzes fairness and bargaining in a dynamic bilateral matching market. Traders from both sides of the market are pairwise matched to share the gains from trade. The bargaining outcome depends on the traders’ fairness attitudes. In equilibrium fairness matters because of market...

Farmer field days (FFDs) are a tool used to transfer knowledge about new technologies from trained farmers to others in their communities. However, studies show mixed results for the effectiveness of FFDs for information diffusion. We conducted experimental auctions for agricultural inputs with...

Solar technologies have been associated with private and social returns, but their technological potential often remains unachieved because of persistently low demand for high-quality products. In a randomized field experiment in Senegal, we assess the potential of three types of quality...

Soil degradation, a serious environmental problem in many developing countries, often necessitates the use of fertilizers to improve crop yields. However, smallholders usually do not have sufficient information about their soil nutrient levels to make profit-maximizing decisions about fertilizer...

This paper examines the impact of public and private agricultural research andextension on agricultural total factor productivity at the state level. We test the hypothesis thatthe composition of agricultural experiment station funding—share of funding from impact offederal competitive grants...

This paper presents new econometric evidence on state government’s demand for resources to support local agricultural experiment station research. The econometric model consists of a complete-demand system covering four major resource sources, and it is fitted to annual observations on 48...