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Can Anchoring Explain Biased Forecasts? Experimental Evidence

Meub, Lukas - 2015

Biased forecasts, particularly the inadequate adjustment from current values and excessive clustering, are increasingly explained as resulting from anchoring. However, experiments presented in support of this interpretation lack economic conditions, particularly monetary incentives, feedback for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035246

Models of Investor Forecasting Behavior - Experimental Evidence

Bonetto, Federico - 2014

asset price trajectories. For example, investors' confidence or panic in relying on observed asset prices to forecast future … with discounting. Asset price bubbles and cycles occurred in all three sessions. We fit different models of forecast … prices can lead to price bubbles, price crashes, and unpredictable price cycles. In this paper, we report the results of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057624

Strategic Coordination in Forecasting. An Experimental Study

Bizer, Kilian - 2014

Reputational herding has been considered as a driving force behind economic and financial forecasts clustered around consensus values. Strategic coordination can consequently explain poor performances of prediction markets as resulting from the distinct incentives that forecasters face. While...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056991

Financial forecasting in the lab and the field : qualified professionals vs. smart students

Te, Bao; Corgnet, Brice; Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Okada, Katsuhiko - 2022

We compare the performance of financial professionals (CFAs) with university students in four financial forecasting tasks ranging from simple lab prediction tasks to longitudinal field tasks. Although students and professionals performed similarly in the artificial forecasting tasks, their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012880037

Anchoring : a valid explanation for biased forecasts when rational predictions are easily accessible and well incentivized?

Meub, Lukas; Proeger, Till; Bizer, Kilian - 2013

Behavioral biases in forecasting, particularly the lack of adjustment from current values and the overall clustering of forecasts, are increasingly explained as resulting from the anchoring heuristic. Nonetheless, the classical anchoring experiments presented in support of this interpretation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009777356

Financial Forecasting in the Lab and the Field : Qualified Professionals vs. Smart Students

Bao, Te; Corgnet, Brice; Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Okada, Katsuhiko - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013297837

Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning to forecast experiments

Hommes, Cars (contributor); Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2008

all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations and individual forecasting behaviour in recent learning to … forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects (Hommes et al. 2007), simultaneously and across different treatments …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003777257

Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning-to-forecast experiments

Hommes, Cars H.; Lux, Thomas - In: Macroeconomic dynamics 17 (2013) 2, pp. 373-401

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009754577

Learning to forecast price

Kelly, Hugh; Friedman, Daniel - In: Economic inquiry : journal of the Western Economic … 40 (2002) 4, pp. 556-573

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001705872

Individual expectations and aggregate macro behavior

Assenza, Tiziana; Heemeijer, Peter; Hommes, Cars H.; … - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191431

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