This paper studies the dynamics of the U.S. external position for the past 35 years, and examines alternative paths for future external adjustment. We develop a new present value expression for the external position that embeds the restrictions of international solvency and can be easily...

This paper presents a new model for studying international capital flows and debt dynamics. The model emphasizes the role of expectations concerning future trade flows and returns as the determinants of a country's foreign asset and liability positions, and how revisions in these expectations...