to the IAB Establishment Panel. Quite surprisingly, the study reveals the average forecast to be significantly … overpessimistic. I propose that the non-existence of a general bias towards overoptimism is due to the lack of incentives to …

forecast errors and accruals, which we label “managers' accrual-related forecast bias.” We build on extensive research which … bias in their forecasts. We also find a substantial decline in managers' accrual-related forecast bias following the … importantly, we find that the effect of forecasting difficulty on managers' accrual-related forecast bias occurs only in the pre …