This paper considers a sticky price model with a cash-in-advance constraint where agents forecast inflation rates by fitting econometric models to data. Agents are uncertain about which model to fit and can choose from a class of models. Only some of the models in this class are consistent with...

We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preferrence for...

In this paper we eamine the characteristics of market opening news and its impact on the estimated coefficients of the conditional volatility model of the GARCH class.

This paper constructs a composite index of coincident economic indicators (CEI), which tracks the state of the Spanish economy better than real GDP, and provides a rigorous dating of the Spanish business cycle turning points.