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The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic … accuracy not inferior to that of structural models. Additional advantage of their approach is that the forecasting procedure … can be mostly automated and the influence of subjective decisions made in the forecasting process can be significantly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512536
The article compares forecast quality from two atheoretical models. Neither method assumed a priori causality and forecasts were generated without additional assumptions about regressors. Tendency survey data was used within the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) framework and...
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mixed frequency datasets with ragged edges in a forecasting context. The resulting method, labeled MF-3PRF, is very simple … samle performance in Monte Carlo experiments, and empirical applications to GDP growth nowcasting and forecasting for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011541230
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Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010404156
encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010508347
-time forecasting exercise, the authors show that including additional factors - that reflect financial sector conditions - improves …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011478512