Presentation to Town Hall Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, March 23, 2010

A massive structural budget deficit threatens the long-term economic health of the United States. But the fiscal imbalance won't necessarily fuel inflation as long as the Federal Reserve retains the independence to pursue its objectives of maximum sustainable employment and price stability. The...

Presentation to Town Hall Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, March 23, 2010

Presented at the Annual Dealmakers Event, San Diego, California.

There has been much talk about a disappointing recovery in the wake of the Great Recession—that this time it is much slower. Comparing features of this recovery to past recoveries casts some doubt on that view. The comparison is made using a scaled-down version of the sophisticated and...

The past recession has hit the labor market especially hard, and economists are wondering whether some fundamentals of the market have changed because of that blow. Many are suggesting that the natural rate of long-term unemployment—the level of unemployment an economy can’t go below—has...

Public sentiment says the recession isn't over. Never mind that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the arbiter of recessions, declared that the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 officially ended in June 2009. An unrelenting pessimism constrains the recovery as consumers spend...

Delivered at the High Profile Speaker Series, New York Society of Security Analysts, New York City. November 8, 2010.