Presentation to Town Hall Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, March 23, 2010

A massive structural budget deficit threatens the long-term economic health of the United States. But the fiscal imbalance won't necessarily fuel inflation as long as the Federal Reserve retains the independence to pursue its objectives of maximum sustainable employment and price stability. The...

Presentation to Town Hall Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, March 23, 2010

This article evaluates the ability of the yield spread to forecast real economic activity in 11 industrial countries. The first section of this article defines the yield spread and explains why the spread may be a useful predictor of real economic activity. The second section describes the data...

Dallas Fed Research Director Harvey Rosenblum discusses the stability of the U.S. economy's Great Moderation and how it set the stage for the financial turmoil that has gripped the nation since August 2007.

Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary Transmission