This paper presents policy- and outcome-based ways of measuring the progress of market-oriented reforms in both traditional areas of first-generation reform and the areas of institutional reform that have been emphasized lately. These policy areas are the domestic financial system; international...

The increased volatility of exchange rates, interest rates and goods prices has focused fresh attention on the importance for developing countries of reducing their risks in these markets. Although, these countries generally cannotuse such conventional hedging instruments as currency and...

The Revised Minimum Standard Model (RMSM) was originally created in 1973 as a means of ensuring a consistent approach to World Bank projections and thus facilitate intercountry comparisons. These objectives are met through the provision of a standard list of variables and a minimum set of...

Following Lucas's (1987) standard approach, welfare gains from international risk-sharing have been measured as the percentage increase in consumption levels that leaves individuals indifferent between, autarky and risk-sharing. The author proposes to measure welfare gains as the increase in...

Payments problems constrained interstate trade among the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries in 1992-95, especially during the prolonged demise of the ruble zone. Two kinds of solutions should be sought: 1) more effective stabilization measures to improve the prospects of currency...

The authors analyze the unparalleled increase in foreign direct investment to emerging market economies in the past 25 years. Using a large cross-country time-series data set, the authors evaluate the dependence of foreign direct investment on global factors or worldwide sources of risk (that...

Conventional analyses of the effect of terms-of-trade shocks provide a misleading view of their impact on investment and the current account, because capital goods imports are excluded from the analytical framework. The author argues that such an exclusion is both arbitrary and unrealistic. The...

Rapid trade liberalization is often followed by a surge of imports and a deterioration in the current account. The macroeconomic counterpart of this is a decline in private savings. This paper discusses the impact of policy uncertainty on private savings. The author uses the Ordinal Certainty...

The authors investigate the impact on economic growth and development of long-run movements in the external terms of trade, with special reference to the experience of 18 oil-exporting countries between 1973 and 1989. They argue that this sample approximates a controlled experiment for examining...

Does risk perpetuate poverty in a credit-constrained economy? Jalan and Ravallion study portfolio and other behavioral responses to measured risk using household panel data for rural China. One-quarter of wealth is held in unproductive liquid forms. But only a small share of this appears to be a...