Starting from an information process governed by a geometric Brownian motion we show that asset returns are predictable if the elasticity of the pricing kernel is not constant. Declining [Increasing] elasticity of the pricing kernel leads to mean reversion and negatively autocorrelated asset...

As a group, market forecasters are egregiously overconfident. In conformity to the dynamic model of overconfidence of Gervais and Odean (2001), successful forecasters become more overconfident. What’s more, more experienced forecasters have learned to be overconfident,ʺ and hence are more...

This paper analyzes the effect of non-constant elasticity of the pricing kernel on asset return characteristics in a rational expectations model. It is shown that declining elasticity of the pricing kernel can lead to predictability of asset returns and high and persistent volatility. Also,...

As agroup, market forecasters are egregiously overconfident. In conformity to the dynamic model of overconfidence of Gervais and Odean (2001), successful forecasters have become more overconfident. What's more, more experienced forecasters have "learned to be overconfident," and hence are more...