money and credit starting from a unit of monetary base. Crucially, however, at the very low frequencies the relative amounts … analyze. This finding questions the widespread notion that, since WWII, credit has become disconnected from broad money, and … suggests that, except for their greater productivity at creating broad money and credit out of base money, today's commercial …

beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in … emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging economies are more concerned about their reputation and tend to ride … the short-term popularity benefits of weak credit booms rather than implementing politically costly corrective policies …

stressed credit markets and confirms their superior performance in explaining the behavior of Credit Default Swap rates for the …