We propose a new predictor - the innovation in the daily return minimum in the U.S. stock market () - for predicting international stock market returns. Using monthly data for a wide range of 17 MSCI international stock markets during the period spanning over half a century from January 1972 to...

Diversification of financial securities is considered a substantial element of portfolio risk. In this context, the construction of an optimal portfolio is an ongoing concern for portfolio managers. This study measures the risk-reward tradeoffs linked to the stock indexes of Germany, Spain,...

Using a novel three-phase model based upon a conditional autoregressive Wishart (CAW) framework for the realized (co)variances of the Dow Jones and the German stock index DAX, we analyze intra-daily volatility spillovers between the US and German stock markets. The proposed model explicitly...

Since portfolio management relies on the association of portfolio diversification, analyzing the spillover between the United States (US) and Asian-Pacific financial markets has become more critical. If Asian stock markets have low or negative correlations with each other and/or the US market,...

Using a novel three-phase model based upon a conditional autoregressive Wishart (CAW) framework for the realized (co)variances of the US Dow Jones and the German stock index DAX, we analyze intra-daily volatility spillovers between the US and German stock markets. The proposed model explicitly...

This paper applies the Bates (RFS, 2006) methodology to the problem of estimating and filtering time- changed Lévy processes, using daily data on U.S. stock market excess returns over 1926-2006. In contrast to density-based filtration approaches, the methodology recursively updates the...