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We propose a novel class of models in which the crash hazard rate is determined by a function of a non-local estimation … of mispricing. Rooted in behavioral finance, the non-local estimation embodies in particular the characteristic of … series because they assume that crashes occur in a single large negative jump, which is counterfactual. The model estimation …
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We empirically evaluate a behavioural model with boundedly rational traders who disagree about the persistence of deviations from the fundamental stock price. Fundamentalist traders believe in mean-reversion, while chartists extrapolate trends. Agents gradually switch between the two rules,...
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