Sudden stops in capital flows are a form of financial whiplash that creates instability and crises in the affected economies. Sudden stops in net capital flows trigger current account reversals as countries that were borrowing on net from the rest of the world before the stop can no longer...

This paper analyzes how default externalities lead to an excessive incidence of systemic private debt crises. An individual defaulting borrower does not internalize that her default leads to a depreciation in the exchange rate because international lenders will sell any seizable assets and flee...

This paper investigates the dynamic implications of Krugman’s (1999) model of financial crises with balance-sheet effects, which has a considerable impact on the literature as well as the teaching of international financial crisis. By explicitly taking account of wealth accumulation and...

This paper examines a model of financial and exchange crises with balance-sheet effects by explicitly taking account of wealth accumulation and external equilibrium condition. We have found that, in a general equilibrium analysis, there are two stationary equilibria. Since foreign debt is always...

Credit constraints that link a private agent's debt to market-determined prices create a systemic credit externality that drives a wedge between competitive and (constrained) socially optimal equilibria, which induces private agents to "overborrow". We quantify the effects of this externality in...

The study examines the reasons for financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as...

Increasing capital inflows and sustained interest rate spreads were important features in East Asia prior to the crisis of 1997-98. But why did capital inflows fail to eliminate interest rate differentials? Why were inflows associated with rising domestic interest rates that then perpetuated the...

To what extent and within what time frame did countries in East Asia recover from the 1997-98 crisis, and, if there has been a recovery, can it be sustained? Drawing on the available evidence, this paper attempts to answer these questions. By implication, however, it also has something to say...

Why do emerging market economies simultaneously hold very high levels of international reserves and foreign liabilities? Moreover, why, even with such huge amounts of international reserves, did countries barely use them during the Global Financial Crisis? I argue that including international...

To what extent and within what time frame did countries in East Asia recover from the 1997-98 crisis, and, if there has been a recovery, can it be sustained? Drawing on the available evidence, this paper attempts to answer these questions. By implication, however, it also has something to say...