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This paper introduces a simple methodology to forecast international trade. The main innovation is to calculate non …-unitary expenditure elasticities of import demand implied by non-homothetic preferences in the previous year to be further combined with … the current change in expenditure to forecast the current imports. Using U.S. data on aggregate expenditure and good …
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While the consequences and effectiveness of IMF conditionality have long been the focus of research, the possible negative impact of IMF conditionality on countries' willingness to ask for an IMF programme - often termed "IMF stigma" - has recently received attention particularly from policy...
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