When do financial markets help in predicting economic activity? With incomplete markets, the link between financial and real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by...

The paper starts from the premise of the organic integration of the financialmonetary components, with their corresponding interrelations, within the macroeconomic system and from their role in ensuring the normal operation of the entire system. In this respect, it is invoked the impact of some...

We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...