indicators (real exchange rates, reserves over M2, imports, short-term debt level...) can be very useful to understand and quantify country risk levels, but are not sufficient. Sudden changes in indicators or combinations of indicators levels can induce a higher risk than what a simple linear...

Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest fi nancial and real crisis. Reading the recent literature, it seems that the crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind when looking at data not to see it coming. In this paper, we analyze whether such claims...