In this paper, we introduce a new pseudo-Bayesian model to incorporate the impact of a financial crisis and establish some properties of stock returns and investors' behavior during a financial crisis and subsequent recovery. Our approach provides a quantitative description for investors'...

The recent global recession requires policy makers to identify the relative importance of shock transmission mechanisms in each region and devise counter policy measures against future idiosyncratic shocks. In the last decade, world dynamics have changed considerably due to increased openness...

Using variance decompositions in vector auto-regressions (VARs) we model a high-dimensional network of European CDS spreads to assess the transmission of credit risk to the non-financial corporate sector. Our findings suggest a sectoral clustering in the CDS network, where financial institutions...

This paper identifies and characterizes episodes of structural change in the 27 years that preceded the Great Recession. This is done by performing Bai-Perron (2003a, 2003b) tests on 61,843 time series that span 34 countries, which collectively accounted for 81% of Gross World Product in 2013....

Severe recessions and financial crises are frequent. Their effect on the economy is persistent and often exceeds initial projections. They can also be a strong driver of widening inequality. Therefore it is important that measures be taken to minimise the risk of such events while strengthening...

Severe recessions and financial crises are frequent. Their effect on the economy is persistent and often exceeds initial projections. They can also be a strong driver of widening inequality. Therefore it is important that measures be taken to minimize the risk of such events while strengthening...

This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology, which allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and model stock market crashes. Utilizing high frequency data, we estimate the daily realized volatility from the returns in the first step and...

We employ a wavelet approach and conduct a time-frequency analysis of dynamic correlations between pairs of key traded assets (gold, oil, and stocks) covering the period from 1987 to 2012. The analysis is performed on both intra-day and daily data. We show that heterogeneity in correlations...

Liechtenstein's economy has been heavily affected by the international economic downturn during the financial crisis. Additionally to the deep world recession, Liechtenstein's financial sector was challenged by the "Zumwinkel-Affair" (data of thousands of tax evaders were sold to several...