This paper investigates tactical investment strategies for investors to survive financial crises. Compared with the buy-and-hold strategy, the buy-and-sell strategy is much more effective in mitigating downside risk before, during, and after a crisis by restricting the left-tail volatility of...

This paper investigates the behavior of crude oil prices, government bonds and stock market indices around outbreaks of severe international crises and wars. Using a constant-mean-return event study, we show that these events are associated with positive and significant abnormal returns on oil...

To find out if gold remains to be unlinked with the crude oil market after the 2008 financial crisis, we investigated how long-run price linkages and price causalities among crude oil and gold markets changed before and after the crisis. To have a good reference, we also tested the same issue...

This paper aims to illustrate how a Mixed-Cross-Section Global Vector Autoregressive (MCS-GVAR) model can be set up and solved for the purpose of forecasting and scenario simulation. The application involves two cross-sections: sovereigns and banks for which we model their credit default swap...

This paper seeks to investigate the time-varying dynamic conditional correlations to the five most important future metal markets, namely Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc and Aluminium. We employ a multivariate Fractionally Integrated Generalized ARCH (FIGARCH) dynamic conditional correlation (cDCC)...

We present a detailed bubble analysis of the Bitcoin to US Dollar price dynamics from January 2012 to February 2018. We introduce a robust automatic peak detection method that classifies price time series into periods of uninterrupted market growth (drawups) and regimes of uninterrupted market...

This paper seeks to investigate the time-varying dynamic conditional correlations to the five most important future metal markets, namely Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc and Aluminium. We employ a multivariate Fractionally Integrated Generalized ARCH (FIGARCH) dynamic conditional correlation (cDCC)...

This paper seeks to investigate the time-varying conditional correlations to the crude oil futures contract returns and the private Credit Default Swap market returns of Germany and France. We employ a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional...