Ever since the end of the Great Recession, the U.S. economy has experienced a period of mild inflation, which contradicts with the output-inflation relationship depicted by a traditional Phillips curve. This paper examines how the permanent output loss during the Great Recession has affected...

Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In this empirical paper, we use multivariate, possibly time-varying, time-series models and show that changes in shocks are a more salient feature of the data than...

A Real Business Cycle model of the UK is developed to account for the behaviour of UK nonstationary macro data. The model, when tested by the method of indirect inference, can explain the behaviour of main variables (GDP, real exchange rate, real interest rate). We use it to explain how 'crisis'...

This study investigates the responses of consumer price index (CPI) to crude oil priceshocks in the pre- and post-2008 global financial crisis. The study used the StructuralVector Autoregressive model to analyse monthly data from 2000M01 to 2019M12.The impulse response analysis showed that for...

During crises, governments resort to extraordinary fiscal and financial measures to mitigate the recessionary impacts of crises. These macroeconomic intervention measures along with aggregate demand and supply shocks and policy choices would affect the exporting environment of a country through...

The global financial crisis was a stark reminder of the importance of cross-country linkages in the global economy. We document growth synchronization across a diverse group of 185 countries covering 7 regions, and pay particular attention to the period around the global financial crisis. A...

This paper studies the spillover effects of the ECB's monetary policies on non-euro area countries over the period 2004-2016, using a GVAR methodology, applied to a large sample of countries and an ample set of variables. Monetary policies are proxied by short-term interest rates and the Wu and...

We measure the time-varying strength of macrofinancial linkages within and across the US and euro area economies by relying on factor models with drifting parameters, where real and financial cycles are extracted and shocks are identified via sign and exclusion restrictions. The main results...

We consider a Keynes-Goodwin model of effective demand and the distributive cycle where workers purchase goods and houses with marginal propensity significantly larger than one. They therefore need credit, supplied from asset holders, and have to pay interest on their outstanding debt. In this...

This paper presents a model addressing the conditions under which financial instability arises in the event of household debt. The model addresses two main cases. First, household debt is affected by functional income distribution. Second, household debt is affected by credit supply and depends...