One of the most popular investment anecdotes relates how Isaac Newton, after cashing in some large early gains, staked his fortune on the success of the South Sea Company of 1720 and lost heavily in the ensuing crash. However, this tale is based on only a few scraps of hard evidence, some of...

This paper uses new data on the timing of sovereign defaults during 1869-1914 to quantify an informational channel of contagion via shared financial intermediaries. Concerns over reputation incentivized Britain's merchant banks to monitor, advise, and occasionally bail out sovereigns. Default...

Walter Bagehot is remembered today primarily as a proponent of the doctrine of lender of last resort, in which central banks pump money into the economy to ameliorate the damage from a financial crisis. But none of the growing number of publications about him appear to investigate in depth...

This paper develops a theory of sovereign debt crises driven by uncertainty shocks that are modeled as changes in investors' confidence in the macroeconomic fundamental of the economy. Due to defaultable government debt, uncertainty feeds into investors' beliefs about the fiscal sustainability...

Alle drei großen Ratingagenturen Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s und Fitch haben Griechenland, Irland, Portugal und Spanien während der europäischen Finanzmarkt- und Staatsschuldenkrise signifikant benachteiligt. Dies lässt sich nur zu einem geringen Teil auf objektive Fundamentaldaten...

Lack of transparency in securitization transactions significantly contributed to the severe financial crisis of 20072009. To increase transparency we propose a new mechanism: financial claims with fingerprints. They would allow market participants at each stage of the securitization process to...

This paper examines the effect of financial liberalization on the financial stability of an economy using changes in sovereign credit ratings as the measure of financial stability. Using a panel dataset from 1970 to 2014, comprising of all the countries rated by Standard and Poor's, Moody's or...