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Would DSGE models have predicted the Great Recession in Austria?
Breuss, Fritz - 2016
story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011561187
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Dynamic prediction pools : an investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance
Del Negro, Marco; Hasegawa, Raiden B.; Schorfheide, Frank - 2014
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414783
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A high-frequency financial conditions index for Norway
Bowe, Frida; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò - 2023
We have constructed a financial conditions index for Norway (FCIN). The FCIN offers a daily update on Norwegian financial conditions based on data from January 2003 on bank lending rates, bond spreads, the foreign exchange market, the stock market and the housing market. The index is constructed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013484734
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Forecasts in Times of Crises
Eicher, Theo - 2018
Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012907940
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A macroeconomic vulnerability model for the euro area
Sondermann, David; Zorell, Nico - 2019
Macroeconomic imbalances increase the vulnerability of an economy to adverse shocks, which in turn can lead to crises with severe economic and social costs. We propose an early warning model that predicts such crises. We identify a set of macroeconomic indicators capturing domestic and external...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012058978
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Economic resilience : what role for policies?
Caldera Sánchez, Aida; Rasmussen, Morten; Röhn, Oliver - 2015
The global financial crisis highlighted the importance of strengthening the resilience of our economies to adverse shocks. In this paper, we take stock of studies carried out primarily within, but also outside the OECD, to better understand the role of macroeconomic and structural policies in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399587
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OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis : a post mortem
Pain, Nigel; Lewis, Christine; Dang, Thai Thanh; Jin, Yosuke - 2014
made in the first oil price shock of the 1970s. In response to the challenges encountered in forecasting in recent years … and the lessons learnt, the OECD and other international organisations have sought to improve their forecasting techniques …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010374419
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Credit, asset prices and business cycles at the global level
Dées, Stéphane - 2015
This paper assesses the role of financial variables in real economic fluctuations, in view of analysing the link between financial cycles and business cycles at the global level. A Global VAR modelling approach, which has been proved suitable for modelling country or regional linkages, is used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476350
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Monitoring Financial Stability in Emerging and Frontier Markets
Bicchetti, David - 2017
This paper outlines a methodology to build monthly financial conditions indicators (FCIs) for developing countries, including a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), least developed countries, and transitions economies as defined by the United Nations' classification. The proposed composite...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955218
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Indonesian Macro Policy Through Two Crises
Azwar, Prayudhi - 2016
Indonesia fielded shocks due to the Asian financial crisis (AFC) and the global financial crisis (GFC) quite differently. Financial contagion, policy misdirection, panic and political upheaval saw the AFC bring economic collapse. The decade-later GFC, however, brought real growth of 6.1% (2008)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013004674