We introduce a methodology for measuring default risk connectedness that is based on an out-of-sample variance decomposition of model forecast errors. The out-of-sample nature of the procedure leads to "realized" measures which, in practice, respond more quickly to crisis occurrences than those...

This study examines the macro drivers of the time-varying (dynamic) connectedness between eleven European tourism sectors. Financial integration between the travel and leisure markets, measured by their dynamic correlations or co-movement, is explained by common global fundamentals. The...

In this paper we examine the extent of international trade synchronization during periods of international trade collapses and US recessions. Using dynamic correlations based on monthly trade data for the G7 economies over the period 1961–2011, our results suggest rather idiosyncratic patterns...