Estimates of the output gap ought to be a useful guide for macroeconomic policy, both for assessing inflationary pressures and fiscal sustainability, but their reliability has been called into question by the large revisions which they are often subject to, particularly around turning points....

UK labour productivity has been persistently weak since the onset of the recent financial crisis. This suggests that there is significant spare capacity within UK companies, but business surveys instead point to little spare capacity. This article aims to shed light on this puzzle by looking at...