Low and unresponsive inflation has been termed a “puzzle.” The paper describes a formula for which these conditions … variability of forward long-term inflation. Its U.S. inflation forecasts are comparable to recognized leaders in accuracy with … potential applicability to international economies as well.Inflation Elasticity, the responsiveness of inflation to monetary …

This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery … the slowdown and later the weak pace of the recovery – errors made by many other forecasters. At the same time, inflation …

Ever since the end of the Great Recession, the U.S. economy has experienced a period of mild inflation, which … contradicts with the output-inflation relationship depicted by a traditional Phillips curve. This paper examines how the permanent … output loss during the Great Recession has affected the ability of the Phillips curve to explain U.S. inflation dynamics. We …

during and following the recent Great Recession, and that models in which inflation depends on economic slack cannot explain … the recent muted behavior of inflation, given the sharp drop in output that occurred in 2008-09. In this paper, we use a … protracted decline in inflation. The model does so even though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of both economic …

Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis … forecast scenarios. We show that financial and external variables have the highest forecasting power for inflation and …

) models, with and without financial frictions, for output growth and inflation in the period 1992 to 2011. We find strong …

) models, with and without financial frictions, for output growth and inflation in the period 1992 to 2011. We find strong …

for output growth and inflation from 1992 to 2011. We find strong evidence of time variation in the pool's weights …

indicators. Using a probit forecasting model, we show that measures of market stress and the inflation-unemployment situation … from record high inflation and tight labor markets, leaving central banks between a rock and a hard place: either tighten …, increasing recession risks, or accept high inflation to avoid a hard landing …

chartalist, respectively), the rate of wage inflation depends on either unemployment or the wage-setting policies of the … inflation affects aggregate demand through its impact on the value of assets and debts. Bank rates depend on an endogenous …