The present paper presents three different short-term oil models on a weekly basis. With these models we try to forecast oil prices out-of-sample up to three months. Two of the models are based on the VAR methodology and consider fundamental factors like the net long position and oil...

The present paper presents three different short-term oil models on a weekly basis. With these models we try to forecast oil prices out-of-sample up to three months. Two of the models are based on the VAR methodology and consider fundamental factors like the net long position and oil...

Nach der jüngsten Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise kamen verstärkt Forderungen auf, die Geldpolitik solle zur frühzeitigen Erkennung von Finanzmarktungleichgewichten verstärkt auf monetäre Variablen ihr Augenmerk richten. Der vorliegende Beitrag zeigt, dass diese Überlegung wohl begründet...

In this paper, we focus on the role of different types of crises (technological crises, financial market crises, natural disasters) and their effects on the demand for cash in an international context. It becomes evident that over the past 30 years cash demand always increased in times of...

We present non-linear binary Probit models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2016. For that purpose, we use four different business cycle dating methods to identify the regimes (upswings, downswings). We find that...