In competitive capital markets, risky debt claims that offer high yields in good times have high systematic risk exposure in bad times. We apply this idea to bank risk measurement. We find that banks with high accounting return on equity (ROE) prior to a crisis have higher systematic tail risk...

Financial institutions received billions of dollars from the U.S. Treasury in the form of preferred equity under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in 2008. Investments were made during a bad state, but the repayments came in a relatively good time. Comparing TARP's realized returns to...

In competitive capital markets, portfolios of risky debt claims have high systematic risk exposure in bad times if they offer a high "yield" in good times. We apply this idea to measurement of bank risk. Rather than trying to directly measure asset risks on the balance sheet — the typical...

The returns of short-term reversal strategies in equity markets can be interpreted as a proxy for the returns from liquidity provision. Analysis of reversal strategies shows that the expected return from liquidity provision is strongly time-varying and highly predictable with the VIX index....

An originate-to-distribute (OTD) model of lending, where the originator of a loan sells it to various third parties, was a popular method of mortgage lending before the onset of the subprime mortgage crisis. We show that banks with high involvement in the OTD market during the pre-crisis period...

We show that the U.S. commercial banks have become increasingly similar in their risk exposure after the global financial crisis. Pairwise correlation in bank equity returns increased threefold after the enactment of annual stress tests under the Dodd-Frank Act (DFA). Non-financials and non-bank...