We develop a theory of stock-market crashes based on differences of opinion among investors. Because of short-sales constraints, bearish investors do not initially participate in the market and their information is not revealed in prices. However, if other, previously-bullish investors have a...

We document that banks which cut lending more during the Great Recession were lending to riskier firms. To explain this evidence, we build a competitive matching model of bank-firm relationships in which risky firms borrow from banks with low holding costs. Based on default probabilities and...

Motivated by growing concerns about the risks and instability of China's financial system, this article reviews several commonly perceived financial risks and discusses their roots in China's politico-economic institutions. We emphasize the need to evaluate these risks within China's unique...

By analyzing 20 developed countries over 1920-2012, we find the following evidence of overoptimism and neglect of crash risk by bank equity investors during credit expansions: 1) bank credit expansion predicts increased bank equity crash risk, but despite the elevated crash risk, also predicts...

We construct housing price indices for 120 major cities in China in 2003-2013 based on sequential sales of new homes within the same housing developments. By using these indices and detailed information on mortgage borrowers across these cities, we find enormous housing price appreciation during...

We analyze whether mid-level managers in securitized finance were aware of the housing bubble and a looming crisis in 2004-2006 using their personal home transaction data. To the extent that the practice of securitization may have led to lax screening of subprime borrowers, we find that the...