We analyze time-varying exchange rate co-movements and volatility spillovers between the Czech koruna, the Polish zloty, the Hungarian forint and the dollar/euro from 1999 to 2016. We apply the dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) model and the Diebold Yilmaz spillover index to examine the...

This paper formulates a second generation currency crises model, which is consistent with many facts regarding the structural economies in Southeast asia. Emphasis is laid on the propagation mechanism from a financial crisis to a currency crisis. Micro-foundation, endogenous labour supply, and...

The 2008 financial crisis has rekindled interest in the issue of early warning signals (EWS) of financial distress. It has also triggered renewed interest in the literature on currency crises, with many countries, especially among emerging market economies, experiencing severe exchange market...

Modelling of conditional volatilities and correlations across asset returns is an integral part of portfolio decision making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations across markets, a trend which has been accentuated...

This paper explores the stability of the relation between money demand for M3 and inflation in the euro area by including the recent period of the financial crisis. Evidence is based on a cointegration analysis, where inflation and asset prices are allowed to enter the long run relationship. By...

We propose various specification tests for Hawkes models based on the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) principle. Hawkes models can be used to model the occurrence of extreme events in financial markets. Our specific testing focus is on extending a univariate model to a multivariate model, that is, we...

It has been argued that existing DSGE models cannot properly account for the evolution of key macroeconomic variables during and following the recent Great Recession, and that models in which inflation depends on economic slack cannot explain the recent muted behavior of inflation, given the...

Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the...

The aim of this article is to examine how the dynamics of correlations between two emerging countries (Brazil and Mexico) and the US evolved from January 2003 to December 2013. The main contribution of this study is to explore whether the plunging stock market in the US, in the aftermath of...

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...