This paper presents a tractable model of non-linear dynamics of market returns using a Langevin approach.Due to non-linearity of an interaction potential, the model admits regimes of both small and large return fluctuations. Langevin dynamics are mapped onto an equivalent quantum mechanical (QM)...

We propose and test a new heuristic on the decision to buy or rent a house: the mortgage illusion, in which potential home buyers are influenced by the comparison between the monthly rental payment and the monthly mortgage installment, for fixed rate mortgages. We find experimental evidence that...

The principles of behavioral psychology can explain how crashes occur. In particular, the concept of "stimulus generalization" tells us that organisms tend to respond in the same way to similar stimuli. In a crash, or pre-crash, context, several stimuli - including rising prices, above-average...

We develop a utility and asset pricing theory that features a novel measure of tail risk. Our model determines investor demand for both left and right-tail risk premia from an indifference curve incorporating tolerance for variance and tail risk. We show that the systematic tail risk factors...

The sharp correction in cryptocurrency markets in May (and June) 2022, especially the dramatic price collapse of ‘stablecoin’ terraUSD (or UST) and its sister token Luna, was covered extensively by the press. We looked at 4,400 reader comments that were posted in response to news and opinion...

Australian Steve Keen was, in fact, one of just 13 registered economists , out of a global total of around 36,000 (yes that really comes out as 0.04%), who actually anticipated the global financial crisis.Knowing this, I think it’s almost impossible not to want to read his latest book,...

Emotional finance introduces the notion that financial markets may be driven by the co-existence of fully-rational and emotional investors, driven by phantasy. The analysis of emotional finance is informed with reference to a Freudian psychoanalytical framework. In this paper, we add to the...

Historical data suggest that the base rate for a severe, single-day stock market crash is relatively low. Surveys of individual and institutional investors, conducted regularly over a 26 year period in the United States, show that they assess the probability to be much higher. We examine the...

The financial press is a conduit for popular narratives that reflect collective memory about historical events. Some collective memories relate to major stock market crashes, and investors may rely on associated narratives, or "crash narratives," to inform current beliefs and choices. Using...

Do prices and returns in the financial markets exhibit observable patterns, or are they truly ‘random walks’, as predicted by the efficient market hypothesis (EMH)? If there are patterns, the natural question becomes, why do we observe such extreme cycles of bubbles (massive over-valuations)...