This paper presents a new framework to model and calibrate the process of firm value evolution when an unanticipated exogenous event impacting one firm can contagiously affect other firms. The nature of propagation of such contagion is determined by the underlying connections between firms,...

We present a stochastic simulation forecasting model for stress testing that is aimed at assessing banks’ capital adequacy, financial fragility, and probability of default. The paper provides a theoretical presentation of the methodology and the essential features of the forecasting model on...

Wegeneralize existing structural credit riskmodels that account for contagion effects across economic sectors, to capture the impact of neglected skewness and excess kurtosis in the asset return process, on the shape of the credit loss distribution. We specify Skew-Normal and Skew-Student t...

In this paper we introduce a calibration procedure suitable for the validation of agent based models. Starting from the well-known financial model of Brock and Hommes 1998, we show how an appro- priate calibration technique makes the model able to describe price time series.The calibration...

We merge the literature on downside return risk and liquidity risk and introduce the concept of extreme downside liquidity (EDL) risks. The cross-section of stock returns reflects a premium if a stock's return (liquidity) is lowest at the same time when the market liquidity (return) is lowest....

We add discrete jumps in the time-to-maturity of a firm's debt to the model of Engle and Siriwardane (2015), such that changes in equity volatility can be explained by the volatility of the firm's assets, its market leverage and investors' perception of the time-to-maturity of the firm's debt....