We outline a procedure for consistent estimation of marginal and joint default risk in the euro area financial system. We interpret the latter risk as the intrinsic financial system fragility and derive several systemic fragility indicators for euro area banks and sovereigns, based on CDS...

We introduce a new measure of systemic risk, the change in the conditional joint probability of default, which assesses the effects of the interdependence in the financial system on the general default risk of sovereign debtors. We apply our measure to examine the fragility of the European...

We examine the impact of the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the relationship between climate risk and systemic risk of U.S. global banks. We find that after 2017, investors stopped pricing climate risk into U.S. systemic risk directly, consistent with domestic investors expecting...

We assess the ability of bank resolution frameworks to deal with systemic banking fragility. Using a novel and detailed database on bank resolution regimes in 22 member countries of the Financial Stability Board, we show that systemic risk, as measured by Delta CoVaR, increases more for banks in...