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Foreign exchange predictability during the financial crisis : implications for carry trade profitability
Anatolyev, Stanislav; Gospodinov, Nikolaj; Jamali, Ibrahim - 2015
In this paper, we study the effectiveness of carry trade strategies during and after the financial crisis using a flexible approach to modeling currency returns. We decompose the currency returns into multiplicative sign and absolute return components, which exhibit much greater predictability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011313235
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The US dollar/euro exchange rate : structural modeling and forecasting during the recent financial crises
Morana, Claudio - In: Journal of forecasting 36 (2017) 8, pp. 919-935
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011860924
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Currency trading in volatile markets : did neural networks outperform for the EUR/USD during the financial crisis 2007 - 2009?
Dunis, Christian; Laws, Jason; Schilling, Ulrike - In: Journal of derivatives & hedge funds 18 (2012) 1, pp. 2-41
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009535199
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Safe haven currency and market uncertainty : yen, renminbi, dollar, and alternatives
Masujima, Yuki - 2017
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012132186
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Dynamic prediction pools : an investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance
Del Negro, Marco; Hasegawa, Raiden B.; Schorfheide, Frank - 2014
We provide a novel methodology for estimating time-varying weights in linear prediction pools, which we call dynamic pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, with and without financial frictions, for output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414783
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Early warning signals of financial crises with multi-scale quantile regressions of log-periodic power law singularities
Zhang, Qun; Zhang, Qunzhi; Sornette, Didier - 2015
We augment the existing literature using the Log-Periodic Power Law Singular (LPPLS) structures in the log-price dynamics to diagnose financial bubbles by providing three main innovations. First, we introduce the quantile regression to the LPPLS detection problem. This allows us to disentangle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011412424
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International Evidence on GFC-Robust Forecasts for Risk Management Under the Basel Accord
McAleer, Michael - 2011
A risk management strategy that is designed to be robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), in the sense of selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models, was proposed in McAleer et al. (2010c). The robust forecast is based on the median of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131430
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Modelling and Forecasting the Global Financial Crisis : Initial Findings Using Heterosckedastic Log-Periodic Models
Fantazzini, Dean - 2011
securitized mortgages in the United States resulted in a liquidity crisis. World stock markets peaked in October 2007 and then …, the world stock markets have rebounded, but strong uncertainties still remain. In order to get more insights into the … current world markets operation, we consider log-periodic models of price movements, which has been largely used in the past …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131972
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GFC-Robust Risk Management Strategies under the Basel Accord
McAleer, Michael - 2010
A risk management strategy is proposed as being robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models. The robust forecast is based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137384
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Forecasting the Global Financial Crisis in the Years 2009-2010 : Ex-Post Analysis
Fantazzini, Dean - 2011
The ex-ante forecast of the SP500 index discussed in Fantazzini (2010a), covering the time sample 14/04/2009-09/10/2010, and originally submitted to the Economics Bulletin on the 15/05/2009 is analyzed. It is found that the realized values of the SP500 index trailed the forecasted values quite...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117963