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We present a detailed bubble analysis of the Bitcoin to US Dollar price dynamics from January 2012 to February 2018. We introduce a robust automatic peak detection method that classifies price time series into periods of uninterrupted market growth (drawups) and regimes of uninterrupted market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011899669
whether they amplify or dampen volatility conditions in the target market. We use historical decompositions to rearrange …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948930
We document that the variation in market liquidity is an important determinant of momentum crashes that is independent of other known explanations surfaced on this topic. This relationship is driven by the asymmetric large return sensitivity of short-leg of momentum portfolio to changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012895183
This paper investigates the role of volatility risk on stock return predictability specified on two global financial … volatility forecasting measures on future stock returns in four different periods (bear and bull markets). First we find clear … and robust empirical evidence that the implied idiosyncratic volatility is the best stock return predictor for every sub …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999962
Despite momentum's strong historical performance, its returns have large negative skewness and occasionally experiences persistent strings of sharp negative returns, referred as "momentum crashes" in the recent literature. I argue that momentum crashes are due to crowded trades which push prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057742
both conditional volatility and skewness. This has first order implications for managing risks associated with momentum … investing: an adjusted momentum portfolio which hedges in real time for both volatility and skewness risk outperforms benchmark … constant and dynamic volatility-managed momentum strategies. This result holds for different levels of transaction costs and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403316
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014342986
Applying a GARCH-S analysis to a daily dataset of eight cryptocurrencies, along with seven equity market indices for advanced countries, and seven equity market indices for emerging economies, for June 2018–June 2021, we find that cryptocurrencies have higher probability of crash risk than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013308809
Bitcoin plunged by 30% on May 19, 2021. We examine the outage the largest crypto exchange Binance experienced during the crash, when it halted trading for retail clients and stopped providing transaction data. We find evidence that Binance back-filled these missing transactions with data that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013435273
allowing for regime dependent shock transmissions according to the volatility state of the financial system. Finding support …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011436025