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To what extent are US and Euro Area (EA) inflation expectations determined by foreign shocks? How do transmissions change during the great recession and European sovereign debt crisis? We address these questions with a flexible structural VAR model of weekly financial markets’ inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011458367
We quantify spillovers of inflation expectations between the United States (US) and Euro Area (EA) based on break-even inflation (BEI) rates. In contrast to previous studies, we model US and EA BEI rates jointly in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The SVAR approach allows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010255370
Beginning with the global financial crisis (2008) the correlation between crude oil prices and medium-term and forward inflation expectations increased leading to fears of their un-anchoring. Using the first principal component of commodity prices as a measure for global aggregate demand, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916305
In this paper we investigate the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogenous agents and a stylized banking sector. We show that frictions in credit supply amplify the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009761866
This paper investigates the optimal monetary policy response to a shock to collateral when policymakers act under … constrained consumers. Our results confirm the literature on model uncertainty with respect to a cost-push shock. Insuring against … model misspecification leads to a more aggressive policy response. The same is true for a shock to collateral. A preference …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003870845
stability. We model the default of a large bank and analyse the resulting contagion effects. This is compared to a common shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003971540
This paper studies the effects of three financial shocks in the economy: a net-worth shock, an uncertainty or risk … shock, and a credit-spread shock. We argue that only the latter can push the nominal interest rate against its zero lower … bound. Further, a recessionary shock to the net worth or the credit spread generates a positive response for loans, which is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010243420
Monetary policy shocks that convey new macroeconomic information are significant predictors of both the absolute and risk-adjusted returns from value investing. Positive Fed information shocks lead to higher subsequent value returns. Crashes in the returns of value investing are most likely to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231644
combined with the theory of optimum currency areas. It shows how since the turn of the millennium a too expansionary monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619626
We disentangle the effects of monetary policy announcements on real economic variables into an interest rate shock … component and a central bank information shock component. We identify both components using changes in interest rate futures and … that a contractionary interest rate shock appreciates the dollar, increases the excess bond premium, and leads to a decline …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012301353