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-movements of global factors in asset prices and capital flows with commodity prices, international trade and world output as well … as the sensitivity of different parts of the world to the Global Financial Cycle. We present evidence of the causal … effects of the monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and of the People's Bank of China on the …
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We survey recent literature on the causes of the collapse in international trade during the 2008-2009 global recession. We argue that the evidence points to the collapse in aggregate expenditure, concentrated on trade-intensive durable goods, as the main driver of the trade collapse. Inventory...
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This paper introduces a simple methodology to forecast international trade. The main innovation is to calculate non-unitary expenditure elasticities of import demand implied by non-homothetic preferences in the previous year to be further combined with the current change in expenditure to...
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In this paper we analyse the role of the international trade network for the strength of the global recession across countries. The novelty of our paper is the use of value-added trade data to capture the importance of trade network structure. We estimate with BMA techniques how far network...
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shifts in the sectoral composition of world trade and split the real exchange rate into its constituent parts to allow for a …
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