The aim of this paper is to determine whether forward-looking option-implied returns forecasts lead to better out-of-sample portfolio performance than conventional time series models. We consider a simple two-asset setting with a risk-free asset and the S&P 500 index the risky asset with monthly...

GLOBAL FINANCE LIQUIDITY RISK REVISITED: JP Morgan Alternative Assets Portfolio Liquidity Assessment Framework & Models: $500 Billion Fund of Funds: 17 Asset ClassesPresentations atJP Morgan World HQ, 270 Park Ave, Manhattan, NY, USAToJP Morgan Global Head of Quant Research & Analytics, JP...

Classical quantitative finance models such as the Geometric Brownian Motion or its later extensions such as local or stochastic volatility models do not make sense when seen from a physics-based perspective, as they are all equivalent to a negative mass oscillator with a noise. This paper...

Investors utility has been mathematically modeled at 1738 by Daniel Bernoulli as an attempt to capture investors preferences to lottery outcomes. Ever since the analysis of decision making under uncertainty has again become a major focus of interest. Kahneman and Tversky in 1979 suggested a more...

The financial market presents non-linearities for the behavior of stock returns for periods of high and low market. This article studies portfolios whose variance-covariance matrices are estimates using a multivariate model with regime change. Investment strategies for portfolios are presented...

We simulate a simplified version of the price process including bubbles and crashes proposed in Kreuser and Sornette (2018). The price process is defined as a geometric random walk combined with jumps modelled by separate, discrete distributions associated with positive (and negative) bubbles....

Standard strategic asset allocation procedures usually neglect market interaction. However, returns are not generated in a vacuum but are the result of the market's price discovery mechanism which is driven by investors' investment strategies. Evolutionary finance accounts for this and...

We study learning and uncertainty under the factor investing paradigm using an endogenous information model with correlated assets. As investors shift attention from firms towards systematic risk factors, stock prices become less informative, increasing systematic uncertainty and incentivizing...

We merge the literature on downside return risk and liquidity risk and introduce the concept of extreme downside liquidity (EDL) risks. The cross-section of stock returns reflects a premium if a stock's return (liquidity) is lowest at the same time when the market liquidity (return) is lowest....

The profitability of a trading system based on the momentum-like effects of price jumps was tested on the time series of 7 assets (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY exchange rates and Light Crude Oil, E-Mini S&P 500 and VIX Futures), in each case for 7 different frequencies (ranging from...