This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters' performance is skill-based. 'Superior' forecasters show...

This paper examines heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations. Whereas agents' heterogeneity is key in modern exchange rate models, evidence on determinants of heterogeneity is weak so far. Our sample, covering expectations from about 300 forecasters over 15 years, shows remarkable time...

This paper examines heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations. Whereas agents' heterogeneity is key in modern exchange rate models, evidence on determinants of heterogeneity is weak so far. Our sample, covering expectations from about 300 forecasters over 15 years, shows remarkable time...