When brokers, analysts and fund managers buy or sell for their own account, they outperform retail investors over short windows up to a month. They earn particularly high abnormal returns when they trade simultaneously with other financial experts and when they trade before earnings...

This paper shows that analyst recommendations aggregated at the country level predict international stock market returns. A trading strategy based on past country-level recommendations yields an abnormal return of around 0.9 percent per month. Aggregate analyst recommendations also predict...

Changes in short-term expected market returns (discount rates) were a significant driver behind the unprecedented fluctuations in equity markets during the first 4 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using option-based estimates of the expected market risk premium for 13 international markets, we...

This study defines the aggregate analyst recommendation for a country as the value-weighted average of all outstanding recommendations for shares of firms incorporated in that country. We show that country-level analyst recommendations predict international stock market returns. A trading...