We conduct an extensive examination of profitability of technical analysis in ten emerging foreign exchange markets. Studying 25988 trading strategies, we find that best rules can sometimes generate an annually mean excess return of more than 30%. Based on standard tests, we find hundreds to...

This paper examines heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations. Whereas agents' heterogeneity is key in modern exchange rate models, evidence on determinants of heterogeneity is weak so far. Our sample, covering expectations from about 300 forecasters over 15 years, shows remarkable time...

Do financial market analysts use structural economic models when forecasting exchange rates? This is the leading question analysed in this paper. In contrast to other studies we use expectations data instead of observable variables. Therefore we analyse the implicit structural models forecasters...