Individual investors’ overall return in stock markets decreases with the increase in trading frequency due to factors such as commission expenses, insider trading, spreads, and institutional investors’ high-frequency algorithms. In this study, the relationship between believing the technical...

The use of fundamentalist traders in the stock market models is problematic since fundamental values in the real world are unknown. Yet, in the literature to date, fundamentalists are often required to replicate key stylized facts. The authors present an agent-based model of the stock market in...

We develop a simple agent-based financial market model in which heterogeneous speculators apply technical and fundamental analysis to trade in two different stock markets. Speculators’ strategy/market selections are repeated at each time step and depend on predisposition effects, herding...

The HODL ideology overgeneralizes the buy-and-hold strategy for risky assets, leading to potential harm in investor wealth accumulation and investor-advisor relations. It originates from misunderstandings of financial theories, empirical evidence, technical analysis, and market timing. I provide...

We measure the information content of monthly analyst consensus forecasts for one-year-forward earnings per share (EPS) based on two well-established price discovery measures drawn from the area of market micro-structure research. Employing a 36-year sample of large US companies listed in the...

Because dividends are taxed at a higher rate than capital gains, as stock with a higher yields should have a higher expected return than a stock whose return is expected to result mostly from price appreciation. Adding yield to the traditional Security Market Line results in a "market plane"...

Extending price momentum tests to the longest available histories of global financial assets, including country equities, government bonds, currencies, commodities, sectors and U.S. stocks, we create a 215-year history of cross-sectional multi-asset momentum, and confirm the significance of the...

This paper discusses the expectation formation process of Japanese stock market professionals and how their expectations are related to larger fluctuations of the TOPIX price than those of economic fundamentals. By utilizing a monthly forecast survey dataset on the TOPIX distributed by QUICK...

The sensitivity of stock valuations to expected earnings growth, termed as the growth premium, fluctuates substantially over time. This study empirically investigates whether these fluctuations can be explained by investor sentiment. The testable prediction is that investor sentiment affects the...

This paper develops textual sentiment measures for China's stock market by extracting the textual tone of 60 million messages posted on a major online investor forum in China from 2008 to 2018. We conduct sentiment extraction by using both conventional dictionary methods based on customized word...