We study the endogenous determination of corporate debt maturity in a setting with default risk. We assume that firms must access the bond market and they issue debt with a flexible structure (coupon, face value, and maturity). Initially, the firm is in a low growth/illiquid state that requires...

This paper provides evidence that firm value declines when credit default swaps (CDS) are initiated, and that the effect is greater when CDS trading activity is higher. This decline, which arises from an increase in the cost of capital as opposed to a decrease in free cash flows, traces to a...

This study aims to evaluate the techniques used for the validation of default probability (DP) models. By generating simulated stress data, we build ideal conditions to assess the adequacy of the metrics in different stress scenarios. In addition, we empirically analyze the evaluation metrics...

This empirical examination of the effect of rollover risk on default risk uses a database of U.S. industrial firms during 1986-2011. This article represents the most comprehensive empirical study to date to support the existence of a rollover risk effect on default risk. This paper investigates...

We study the effect of rollover risk on the risk of default using a comprehensive database of U.S. industrial firms during 1986–2013 This article is the most thoroughgoing empirical research to date to support the existence of a rollover risk effect on the risk of default. A one standard...

In this paper, we compare different methods for computing default probabilities using a sample of banks that experienced financial distress during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. The traditional KMV-Merton model for firm valuation, credit ratings by rating agencies and a recently...

This paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between...

The purpose of this paper is to examine the essential characteristics of the financial statements of FinTech start-ups and to investigate which figures of balance sheets are suitable indicators of failure for this still rising group of start-ups. We conduct a quantitative analysis of 595 annual...

While empirical literature has documented a negative relation between default risk and stock returns, the theory suggests that default risk should be positively priced. We provide an explanation for this "default anomaly", by calculating monthly probabilities of default (PDs) for a large sample...