We develop distress prediction models for non-financial small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) using a dataset from eight European countries over the period 2000-2009. We examine idiosyncratic and systematic covariates and find that macro conditions and bankruptcy codes add predictive power...

This paper proposes and examines a new structural risk of default model for banks in frictional and fuzzy financial markets. It is motivated by the need to fill the shortcomings of probability-based credit risk metric models that are characterised by unrealistic assumptions such as crisply...

The aim of this paper is to present model risk situations and a methodology to measure and quantify the associated risk at model level, with different types of assumptions. Then, considering that in practice, a model risk management at model level is hardly feasible, this paper also outlines a...

In this paper, we examine idiosyncratic and systematic distress predictors for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in Europe over the period 2000-2009. We find that SMEs across European regions are vulnerable to common idiosyncratic factors but systematic factors vary. Moreover, systematic...

[Update: Within four weeks of the original publication of this research report, Risk Magazine reported in its 28th February 2012 issue story titled 'Goodbye VaR? Basel to Consider Other Risk Metrics': "A review of trading book capital rules, due to be launched in March by the Basel Committee on...

This paper answers two research questions: what is the appropriate modeling tool for NPL study? and whether the NPL rates in Thailand show improving or deteriorating trend? NPL is of interests to management decision makers because it serves as an indicator for assessing risk in commercial loans....

This paper presents a credit migration model that aims to consistently capture the point-in-time dynamics of the credit worthiness of debt issuers and their obligations, and a calibration routine that permits the model to effectively fit historical ratings data. Our approach is to view the...

Starting from the requirement that risk measures of financial portfolios should be based on their losses, not their gains, we define the notion of loss-based risk measure and study the properties of this class of risk measures. We characterize loss-based risk measures by a representation theorem...

In this study, we investigate the dynamic volatility connectedness of FinTech, innovative technology communication, and cryptocurrency indices for the period from June 2018 to June 2022. We investigate the connectivity and risk spillovers before and after the COVID-19 period to understand the...