We propose a framework for understanding recurrent historical episodes of vigorous economic expansion accompanied by extreme asset valuations, as exhibited by the U.S. in the 1990s. We interpret this phenomenon as a high-valuation equilibrium with a low effective cost of capital based on...

For economists and political scientists - as much as for tourists seeking adventure - China is intriguing. It is huge and enormously populous. It has a multi-layered ancient culture and history. It has become fully engaged with the global economy in recent years, and the blistering growth of its...

Why does trust vary so substantially across countries? How does trust affect growth? This paper presents a general equilibrium growth model in which heterogeneous agents transact and face a moral hazard problem. Agents in this world may trust those with whom they transact, but they also have the...

This paper analyzes China's economic performance in the last 25 years and discusses its prospect for growth in the future. China has enjoyed high annual GDP growth rates of about ten percent in the last 25 years. Exports and investment were the two driving forces of the growth process. FDI plays...

This paper examines the question to what extent premia for macroeconomic risks inbanking are sufficient to avoid banking crises. We investigate a competitive bankingsystem embedded in an overlapping-generations model subject to repeatedmacroeconomic shocks. We show that even if banks fully...

In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area and Japan. This new tool, which uses unrestricted mixed-data sampling (U-MIDAS) regressions, allows an evaluation of the usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting...

This paper discusses an empirical model of UK GDP growth in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model estimates that social distancing and lockdown restrictions reduced, on average, annual UK growth by 9.7 percentage points compared to the scenario of no government action. At the other...

Background: There is special role of money in the economy due to its astonishing importance as change in the amount of it can have a significant effect on the major macroeconomic variables. Money supply is generally considered as policy-determined phenomenon. Like in all the nations,...

The paper examines the implications of financial reform and interest rate behaviour on economic growth in Nigeria. The cointegration and error correction model were used on time series data from 1970-2006. The results demonstrate that financial reform and interest rates have significant impact...

The generation and implementation of ideas, or knowledge, is crucial for economic performance. We study this process in a model of endogenous growth with frictions. Productivity increases with knowledge, which advances via innovation, and with the exchange of ideas from those who generate them...