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Professional Forecasters and the Real-time Forecasting Performance of an Estimated New Keynesian Model for the Euro Area
Smets, Frank - 2013
(2012) estimated on euro area data. It investigates to what extent forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078530
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Comparisons and Contrasts of the Impact of the Crisis on Euro Area Labour Markets
Anderton, Robert - 2015
The global financial and economic crisis – including two euro area recessions in 2008-2009 and 2011-2013 – has had a heavy impact on euro area labour markets. A notable feature throughout the crisis has been the considerable degree of cross-country heterogeneity of labour market adjustments...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013030869
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Nowcasting Employment in the Euro Area
Banbura, Marta; Belousova, Irina; Bodnár, Katalin; … - 2023
Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014354741
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Financial heterogeneity and monetary union
Gilchrist, Simon; Schoenle, Raphael; Sim, Jae W.; … - 2018
We analyze the economic consequences of forming a monetary union among countries with varying degrees of financial distortions, which interact with the firms' pricing decisions because of customer-market considerations. In response to a financial shock, firms in financially weak countries (the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932300
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Overconsumption, credit rationing and bailout monetary policy : a Minskyan perspective
Charpe, Matthieu; Flaschel, Peter; Proaño Acosta, Christian - 2009
We consider a Keynes-Goodwin model of effective demand and the distributive cycle where workers purchase goods and houses with marginal propensity significantly larger than one. They therefore need credit, supplied from asset holders, and have to pay interest on their outstanding debt. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003861624
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Forecasting Unemployment Rates with International Factors
Pincheira, Pablo M. - 2020
In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises. Our main results indicate that the predictive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845239
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Inflation in the great recession and new keynesian models
Del Negro, Marco; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; Schorfheide, Frank - 2013
during and following the recent Great Recession, and that models in which inflation depends on economic slack cannot explain … the recent muted behavior of inflation, given the sharp drop in output that occurred in 2008-09. In this paper, we use a … protracted decline in inflation. The model does so even though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of both economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009744674
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Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models
Del Negro, Marco - 2013
during and following the recent Great Recession, and that models in which inflation depends on economic slack cannot explain … the recent muted behavior of inflation, given the sharp drop in output that occurred in 2008-09. In this paper, we use a … protracted decline in inflation. The model does so even though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of both economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081875
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Worker debt, default and diversity of financial fragility
Charpe, Matthieu; Flaschel, Peter - 2011
This paper presents a model addressing the conditions under which financial instability arises in the event of household debt. The model addresses two main cases. First, household debt is affected by functional income distribution. Second, household debt is affected by credit supply and depends...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009530398
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Financial shocks and inflation dynamics
Abbate, Angela; Eickmeier, Sandra; Prieto, Esteban - 2016
We assess the effects of financial shocks on inflation, and to what extent financial shocks can account for the … shocks through sign restrictions. Our main finding is that expansionary financial shocks temporarily lower inflation. This … during the latest financial crisis. We then explore the transmission channels of financial shocks relevant for inflation, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011546785