Economic convergence is at the heart of European Union integration. The importance of this objective has not diminished over time, and it is especially relevant in light of the economic crisis that has exacted a heavy toll on EU countries and created scepticism about the merits of EU policies....

This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MS-VAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...