This paper shows that stock volatility increases during recessions and financial crises from 1834-1987. The evidence reinforces the notion that stock prices are an important business cycle indicator. Using two different statistical models for stock volatility, I show that volatility increases...

This paper analyzes the behavior of stock return volatility using daily data from 1885 through 1987. The October 1987 stock market crash was unusual in many ways relative to prior history. In particular, stock volatility jumped dramatically during and after the crash, but it returned to lower....

This paper uses monthly returns from 1802-2010, daily returns from 1885-2010, and intraday returns from 1982-2010 in the United States to show how stock volatility has changed over time. It also uses various measures of volatility implied by option prices to infer what the market was expecting...